Fidesz is experiencing a slight tailwind going into 2013, reinforcing an already relatively strong position. After the Constitutional Court scuttled its main strategy for keeping the biggest risk factor, disaffected voters, at home during the election, however, the strategic choices available to the governing party for the remainder of its term are also more significant electorally. One obvious option is a piece of budget populism. Splurging a bit after years of recession might be welcomed by a financially depressed electorate. This scenario is of course limited by the still pressing debt problem, but the government will likely use whatever latitude it has. The government might moreover decide to become a bit more conciliatory, seeking to change its divisive image. That is not a certainty, however: some incumbents have fared better with polarisation, and this may be the last time Fidesz has access to a constitutional supermajority, which is a major temptation to wreak some more havoc.
Policy Solutions' analysis on Fidesz's year ahead can be downloaded from here.
Policy Solutions is a progressive political research institute based in Budapest. It was founded in 2008 and it is committed to the values of liberal democracy, solidarity, equal opportunity and European integration. The focus of Policy Solutions’ work is on understanding political processes in Hungary and the European Union. Among the pre-eminent areas of our research are the investigation of how the quality of democracy evolves, the analysis of factors driving euroscepticism, populism and the far-right, and election research.
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