While Fidesz’ standing among likely voters continues to be strong, it experienced a massive collapse among the population at large. It retains an impressive lead only because the opposition is fragmented and unattractive, and most of the voters who abandoned Fidesz do not have a clear alternative preference at this point. In some polls, Fidesz’ support is dropping perilously close to the levels that MSZP experienced during the period between autumn 2006 and spring 2009, when Ferenc Gyurcsány resigned. The key differences at this point are that MSZP’s low approval was persistent and mostly unbudging, and that it faced a strong opposition party (i.e. Fidesz) that was seen as an obvious alternative in government. Though even at current levels of support Fidesz is reasonably safe for now, it needs to recapture some more support in the population at large if it wants to retain a safe distance from potential challengers in 2014.
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Policy Solutions is a progressive political research institute based in Budapest. It was founded in 2008 and it is committed to the values of liberal democracy, solidarity, equal opportunity and European integration. The focus of Policy Solutions’ work is on understanding political processes in Hungary and the European Union. Among the pre-eminent areas of our research are the investigation of how the quality of democracy evolves, the analysis of factors driving euroscepticism, populism and the far-right, and election research.
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