As the 2019 Hungarian local elections approach, it is becoming increasingly important to identify who are satisfied and dissatisfied with the development of public affairs in Hungary. Policy Solutions has therefore undertaken to examine the demographic and value characteristics of voters who think that things are going in the wrong direction in Hungary. We investigated the main concerns of dissatisfied voters and their assessment about the work of the governing parties and the opposition. The results of the research are based on the data of three opinion polls completed in the spring of 2019. 3000 people – representing the whole adult population of Hungary by age, gender and education – were asked by our partner pollster Závecz Research.
Some key findings:
- 53% of Hungarians are “dissatisfied voters”, saying that ‘things are going in the wrong direction in Hungary’. We believe that understanding those voters’ concerns may be key to future election results. 19% of the dissatisfied voters are currently non-voters – this group could be a primary target for opposition mobilisation in the future.
- There is no single opposition party that a majority of dissatisfied voters would consider sympathetic. The refusal of Fidesz-KDNP, on the other hand, is highest among supporters of left-liberal DK and radical right Jobbik.
- A vast majority of dissatisfied voters demand cooperation from the opposition parties at the 2019 local elections and support the principle of one opposition candidate against Fidesz’s nominees.
- The chances for some opposition gains at the 2019 local elections are not bad: in the whole Hungarian society, there is almost exactly the same number of people who would vote for the government party’s candidate as those who would support an opposition candidate.
Author: András Bíró-Nagy
Policy Solutions is a progressive political research institute based in Brussels and Budapest. It was founded in 2008 and it is committed to the values of liberal democracy, solidarity, equal opportunity and European integration. The focus of Policy Solutions’ work is on understanding political processes in Hungary and the European Union. Among the pre-eminent areas of our research are the investigation of how the quality of democracy evolves, the analysis of factors driving euroscepticism, populism and the far-right, and election research.
Follow us on Facebook!