A growing number of voters refuse to name a party they would support, sending Fidesz and the entire political class a warning message. Fidesz’s popularity is reminiscent of a hot-air balloon with a small leak – the helium is gradually oozing out, slowly bringing the balloon from stratospheric heights back towards the ground. The governing party has lost roughly a third of its voters since last May. The trend may still easily be reversed, and there is as of yet no opposition party that is able to reap the benefits of Fidesz’s declining support – but as a trend, the government must take this seriously.
Finally, Fidesz’s magic appears to be wearing off. In terms of popularity, Fidesz is still by far the strongest among the parliamentary parties and the number of its supporters outweighs the combined figures of the opposition. But outside the parliamentary parties, the party of non-voters is now much larger than the Fidesz-camp, and in fact almost as popular as the entire spectrum of parties combined. According to the latest survey by Szonda-Ipsos, half the population has no preference for either party. Tárki’s numbers are only slightly better for the political class.
Though Fidesz’s dip in the poll has been remarkable since beginning of the year, what we appear to be witnessing is not one or a few overarching issues bringing the government’s popularity down, but rather an ongoing series of political events that cast the government in a bad light and gradually erode its vast popularity.
Policy Solutions' analysis on the latest public opinion polls can be downloaded from here.
Policy Solutions is a progressive political research institute based in Budapest. It was founded in 2008 and it is committed to the values of liberal democracy, solidarity, equal opportunity and European integration. The focus of Policy Solutions’ work is on understanding political processes in Hungary and the European Union. Among the pre-eminent areas of our research are the investigation of how the quality of democracy evolves, the analysis of factors driving euroscepticism, populism and the far-right, and election research.
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